After days of denying the spreading of the Coronavirus or Covid-19 at a community level in India, the government has finally accepted the presence of âlimited community transmissionâ or âstage 3â in the country, according to Livemint. 

What Exactly Is âCommunity Transmissionâ Aka âStage 3â?  

According to the World Health Organisation, âcommunity transmission is evidenced by the inability to relate confirmed cases through chains of transmission for a large number of cases, or by increasing positive tests through sentinel samples (routine systematic testing of respiratory samples from established laboratories).â 

In other words, if a community enters stage 3, a large portion of the population will get infected without knowing how they got exposed to the contagion ie; even if they didnât travel to the infected places or come in contact with anyone whoâs been tested positive. 

According to CNBC, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for example, could not trace the source of a California patient in the USA, who contracted the virus in February 2020. The USA now has over 1,40,000 reported cases. 

âAt this time, the patientâs exposure is unknown,â the CDC had said in a statement. âItâs possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States.â 

Should India Be Worried About Entering Stage 3? 

On March 19, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had said that they had examined over 800 random samples and found that the results did not indicate community transmission yet. 

"We can consider that we are in the community transmission stage only when there are about 20 to 30 per cent cases with no clue on how they got the virus," said Lav Aggarwal, a joint secretary in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, later in the week. 

"If India enters that stage, we will not hide it. We will tell people so that we can step up the level of alertness and awareness." 

© Center For Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy

Having said that, the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy (CDDEP) believes the situation might be worse than the ICMR feels. According to them, stage 3 is already in India and began somewhere in the early days of March. Their report also says that between 300 and 400 million Indians are likely to be infected by July if no interventions are made (although, most of these cases will be mild). 

According to yet another report shared by The Economic Times, community transmission in India is âinevitableâ. ICMR director general Balram Bhargava said âthe virus will behave the same way it has behaved in China. It will follow the same pattern.â 

On March 14, 2020, Bhargava said that the âIf we manage 30 days (until April 14), if community transmission doesnât happen in the next 30 days, we may be at a good wicket.â 

What Do We Do In Case We Do Enter Stage 3? 

© Twitter

The CDDEP recommends that in theory, social distancing can reduce the effectiveness of community transmission by over 75%. However, the task of carrying out the phenomenon on a scale as wide as the Indian population could be difficult. 

It is an absolute must for people over the age of 65 to take shelter as the virus is more effective towards them. 

The thought of a country like India with a population of 1.3 billion entering phase 3 is harrowing and the potential damage, irreversible. Therefore the best we can do now is just stay at home, we canât stress its significance enough.

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